What’s Next for Syria?

Throughout the tenure of the Biden Administration, conflict and turmoil have only gotten worse in the Middle East.

A recent flareup in the region is the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria.

Syrian rebel forces struck quickly at the beginning of December, taking control of major cities in Syria before advancing on the country’s capital, Damascus.

The regime’s army could not withstand the rebel advance. Some of the regime’s soldiers fled to Iraq, and al-Assad was forced into exile in Russia.

This marks a momentous event in Syrian history. The Assad regime in Syria lasted for more than half a century.

Bashar al-Assad’s father, Hafez, was a ruthless dictator who seized power in a coup in 1970. Hafez exercised power and repression in terrible forms. He ordered brutal crackdowns on various groups in the country and the media was state-controlled.

As leaders of the Baath political party, the Assads adhered to pan-Arab socialism. All walks of life in Syria revolved around the Baathists. Around the same time, the Baath party movement in Iraq was led by Saddam Hussein.

Under Bashar al-Assad, the government continued its human rights abuses, going so far as to have reportedly used chemical weapons on the Syrian people. The country was plunged into a civil war in 2011, and millions of Syrians have been displaced.

Many are celebrating the Syrian rebel victory over al-Assad. It is with good reason to cheer for the triumph of people who topple an oppressive government.

However, not every triumph over an oppressive government has the good outcome that the United States of America had after its revolution.

One of the most well-known revolutions of the 20th century took place in the Russian Empire. As Russia stared down the armies of the Central Powers in World War I, the Russian Czar was dealing with domestic turmoil.

Czar Nicholas II, who at one time exercised personal command of the Russian army, abdicated his throne in March 1917 in response to intense protests. The Duma, a parliamentary body, formed a provisional government under Alexander Kerensky.

That government embraced freedom of speech and political participation from all groups, including the communist Bolsheviks.

The Bolsheviks capitalized on the new republic’s political process. They routinely denounced the provisional government for Russia’s continued involvement in World War I and the effects it had on food shortages and inflation.

By October, the provisional government fell apart. The Red Revolutionaries, led by Bolshevik Party leader Vladimir Lenin, seized power and formed the Soviet Union.

Like the state of affairs of 1917 Russia, Syria appears headed for significant upheaval.

The Syrian rebels are led by a group known as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).

As of this writing, HTS is designated as a foreign terrorist group by the United States and several other Western nations. Members of HTS associate themselves with the Sunni sect of Islam.

BBC reports that at one time, the HTS leader, Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, was linked to the ISIS leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, and supported al-Qaeda, the group responsible for orchestrating the 9/11 terrorist attacks.

One significant issue in forming a stable government will be respecting religious liberties. Assad is an Alawite. Many Druze, another faith, also live in Syria, along with Shiite Muslims, Christians and other religious minorities.

Al-Jolani’s family supposedly has roots in the Golan Heights, a territory divided between Israel and Syria. Thousands of Israelis and Syrians now live in the area.

Following the collapse of the Assad regime, Israel sent troops into Syrian sections of the Golan Heights to create a buffer zone with Syria. Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu explained his decision, saying Israel will not allow any hostile force to establish itself on Israel’s border.

This move by Israel suggests it is preparing for the worst.

While the US has long opposed the Assad regime, how the US approaches HTS remains to be seen.

To President Trump’s credit in his first term, American troop presence in Syria was dedicated to the annihilation of ISIS. President Trump also ordered the 2019 strike that killed al-Baghdadi.

After years of instability and turmoil, the Syrian people now face one of the best opportunities to establish democratic institutions and principles in the country.

My desire is that the United States supports the institutions of democracy and freedom, including religious freedom, in Syria. It is important to encourage the stabilization of the country as much as possible in order to hopefully foster a free and harmonious Syria.

If you have questions, concerns, or comments, feel free to contact my office. You can call my Abingdon office at 276-525-1405 or my Christiansburg office at 540-381-5671. To reach my office via email, please visit my website at www.morgangriffith.house.gov.